* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 72 73 73 69 63 58 54 51 45 40 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 72 73 73 69 63 58 54 51 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 68 69 68 65 61 55 49 44 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 2 4 4 4 4 7 6 4 5 5 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 4 4 3 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 23 3 88 121 95 339 342 328 253 187 72 121 98 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 136 130 125 122 123 121 120 122 124 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 67 69 66 65 61 59 59 59 63 61 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 29 29 29 28 28 26 25 25 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 9 15 21 18 8 3 -6 -4 -8 -11 -24 -35 -45 200 MB DIV 42 65 76 52 5 23 -12 3 44 29 39 27 17 700-850 TADV -7 1 0 0 -2 -3 1 10 13 13 10 8 5 LAND (KM) 2082 2175 2276 2202 2037 1711 1408 1104 822 545 318 220 234 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.3 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 131.3 132.8 134.3 135.8 138.8 141.6 144.4 147.0 149.6 152.2 154.6 157.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 4. -2. -7. -11. -14. -20. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##