* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 46 54 60 65 68 70 71 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 46 54 60 65 68 70 71 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 41 51 60 67 74 79 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 7 10 16 14 16 12 15 10 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 71 74 71 65 63 75 69 74 71 84 102 123 135 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 157 155 156 158 157 155 152 151 149 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 68 68 66 65 62 59 52 48 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 -3 0 -2 8 -7 -16 -22 -20 -9 -9 -7 200 MB DIV -8 3 18 15 8 0 -18 -17 -6 -3 -18 -8 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 657 668 686 720 759 838 956 1003 1066 1150 1251 1317 1398 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.8 106.1 107.3 108.5 110.5 112.3 114.0 115.6 117.2 118.8 120.4 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 44 68 88 67 53 32 20 20 19 15 19 38 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 21. 29. 35. 40. 43. 45. 46. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##