* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 68 64 56 44 37 33 31 32 34 39 V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 68 64 56 45 38 34 32 33 35 41 V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 71 69 65 60 55 51 49 48 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 12 9 8 20 33 33 25 14 11 8 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 -2 -8 -1 1 3 -7 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 29 23 19 347 322 289 321 318 285 289 302 288 191 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 125 127 130 134 137 139 141 141 141 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 41 39 40 42 45 52 50 52 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 18 16 15 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 41 31 17 10 -5 -7 -1 -6 3 -8 -13 200 MB DIV -36 -41 -29 -35 -23 -38 -6 -5 -3 -34 -17 -37 -12 700-850 TADV 11 11 11 10 12 9 3 -5 -7 -3 -5 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1050 868 686 523 361 69 125 189 274 471 736 968 1185 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.9 148.6 150.1 151.6 154.4 157.3 159.8 161.9 164.2 166.9 169.2 171.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 14 13 11 10 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 0 9 7 15 30 19 23 11 14 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -36. -43. -47. -49. -48. -46. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##