* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 70 70 69 64 59 53 48 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 70 70 69 64 59 53 48 43 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 66 65 63 59 53 48 44 41 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 4 4 3 5 12 12 12 4 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 3 4 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 21 59 121 141 275 285 250 219 234 210 170 202 223 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 128 124 122 122 120 119 121 122 124 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 62 59 55 55 56 58 54 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 29 29 29 29 27 27 26 26 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 11 6 -3 4 -11 5 -1 -4 -25 -32 -45 200 MB DIV 56 67 65 22 34 34 7 58 44 32 2 9 12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 5 9 7 9 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 2144 2246 2207 2043 1880 1552 1226 925 649 405 286 279 319 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.6 22.0 23.5 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.1 132.7 134.2 135.7 137.2 140.2 143.2 146.0 148.6 151.1 153.5 156.0 158.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. -1. -6. -12. -17. -22. -23. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##