* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 45 56 65 73 78 78 78 78 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 45 56 65 73 78 78 78 78 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 36 46 58 70 80 87 91 90 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 12 15 16 16 14 12 16 17 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 56 70 71 72 69 69 60 81 81 116 118 111 100 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 155 156 158 157 157 153 151 148 143 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 70 69 67 63 61 52 48 42 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 1 5 4 4 7 -8 -9 -22 -10 -9 -4 -15 200 MB DIV -2 16 18 13 8 -5 -12 -8 -17 -14 -10 -15 -20 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 634 655 688 722 759 863 953 997 1063 1159 1245 1313 1408 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.2 107.3 108.4 109.4 111.2 113.0 114.7 116.3 118.0 119.7 121.3 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 72 82 62 49 42 24 21 27 21 16 26 36 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 31. 40. 48. 53. 53. 53. 53. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##