* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 109 113 115 114 112 111 106 104 102 92 77 64 V (KT) LAND 100 80 57 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 100 84 58 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 9 13 9 6 11 7 5 11 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 0 -3 0 1 -2 6 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 348 345 337 331 326 332 251 241 223 99 67 55 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.5 27.2 25.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 153 151 149 148 150 154 151 138 120 105 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 62 59 57 59 55 59 55 53 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 25 26 27 28 31 31 32 31 28 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 88 92 91 95 100 111 118 112 133 93 78 35 22 200 MB DIV 40 27 18 29 67 73 112 36 66 24 -19 -17 -4 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 3 5 7 11 21 19 9 4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2240 2352 2471 2574 2682 2836 2905 2832 2673 2624 2761 2957 3140 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.9 22.6 25.7 28.6 31.3 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 179.1 180.6 182.1 183.4 184.7 186.5 187.4 187.0 185.8 185.3 186.3 187.7 188.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 8 6 11 15 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 38 35 31 26 27 33 46 14 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 14. 13. 9. 5. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 9. 8. 3. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 15. 14. 12. 11. 6. 4. 2. -8. -23. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 39% is 9.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/07/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##