* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 72 68 57 49 42 39 41 43 45 45 V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 72 68 57 50 43 40 41 44 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 80 78 76 64 66 61 56 54 56 60 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 11 11 12 26 33 31 17 13 5 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 -6 1 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 19 22 355 330 299 304 327 299 294 303 258 313 112 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 126 128 133 138 140 141 140 142 146 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 41 42 39 39 39 38 43 51 50 51 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 17 16 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 27 16 13 2 -5 2 4 5 -4 -15 -29 200 MB DIV -41 -32 -41 -9 -8 -45 18 -2 -8 19 -19 -22 -8 700-850 TADV 14 12 8 7 8 4 0 -3 -2 -4 0 4 4 LAND (KM) 882 720 558 397 237 6 177 284 506 743 999 1218 1435 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.7 23.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.7 148.2 149.7 151.2 152.7 155.9 159.2 162.1 164.6 167.0 169.5 171.6 173.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 15 13 11 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 8 1 21 32 19 21 10 14 23 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -11. -13. -14. -12. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -23. -31. -38. -41. -39. -37. -35. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##