* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 53 63 71 75 76 76 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 53 63 71 75 76 76 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 43 53 64 74 81 85 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 8 11 6 13 9 12 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 -7 -5 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 58 56 55 60 46 82 103 107 104 85 86 119 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 156 158 157 158 156 152 150 145 139 135 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 69 67 68 62 59 52 48 41 40 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 0 2 3 0 -13 -16 -19 -11 -15 -16 -25 200 MB DIV 10 10 14 22 16 -19 -15 -16 -11 -7 -13 -15 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 652 675 705 738 784 893 931 990 1056 1135 1192 1259 1325 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.9 113.5 115.1 116.7 118.2 119.7 121.1 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 83 65 49 43 34 22 24 30 18 16 21 24 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 28. 38. 46. 50. 51. 51. 51. 50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##