* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * JULIO EP102014 08/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 94 95 94 87 79 71 63 55 50 44 43 V (KT) LAND 85 91 94 95 94 87 79 71 63 55 50 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 91 89 86 79 70 62 56 51 48 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 3 2 4 10 11 13 16 15 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 1 0 0 -4 -4 1 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 42 47 357 293 244 298 231 246 237 277 251 262 247 SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 121 121 122 121 120 122 123 125 127 128 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 57 57 52 53 55 57 53 49 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 26 26 27 25 25 25 24 22 22 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 -9 -12 -4 -16 -11 -15 -21 -43 -56 -62 -61 200 MB DIV 52 46 50 52 44 13 37 21 11 -21 7 0 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 3 6 2 6 3 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2210 2043 1875 1714 1552 1238 906 618 387 243 214 288 482 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 134.1 135.7 137.2 138.7 140.2 143.1 146.2 148.9 151.4 154.1 157.0 159.5 161.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -25. -28. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 9. 2. -6. -14. -22. -30. -35. -41. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##