* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 43 46 45 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 43 46 45 43 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 19 22 25 29 33 35 35 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 13 9 12 15 17 19 20 16 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 37 37 46 46 56 84 72 87 89 107 107 133 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 159 159 157 153 147 142 135 129 125 121 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 70 70 66 62 53 50 44 41 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 0 4 10 -3 -8 -18 -6 -12 -18 -33 -41 200 MB DIV 9 17 27 32 14 -15 5 -13 -18 -16 -11 -15 -33 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 651 672 690 725 772 838 839 882 928 973 1007 1075 1121 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.0 108.9 109.8 110.7 112.4 113.9 115.4 116.7 118.1 119.1 120.3 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 63 48 39 33 28 26 30 25 15 11 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 25. 23. 22. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##