* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 62 58 51 42 36 34 32 29 28 25 25 V (KT) LAND 70 66 62 58 54 45 39 37 35 32 31 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 64 63 53 55 51 49 48 50 52 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 21 30 38 27 21 21 16 9 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -1 0 -8 0 0 -5 -3 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 8 343 320 307 306 316 274 234 213 192 176 124 119 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 129 131 132 136 137 138 138 140 147 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 36 37 42 48 50 50 48 50 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 16 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 16 15 0 -5 -11 -15 -18 -38 -47 -69 -84 200 MB DIV -44 -44 -24 -27 -52 5 3 0 -12 -19 -17 -8 -11 700-850 TADV 10 4 6 6 5 4 -3 0 -3 5 -3 4 -10 LAND (KM) 542 369 196 19 20 113 155 360 599 873 1172 1483 1793 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.3 24.3 25.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 151.4 153.0 154.7 156.3 159.0 161.1 163.3 165.6 168.2 171.0 173.9 176.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 12 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 11 2 8 6 30 24 22 9 12 22 19 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -19. -28. -34. -36. -38. -41. -42. -45. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##