* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 88 86 78 70 63 55 49 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 88 86 78 70 63 55 49 42 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 85 87 87 85 83 76 68 61 54 50 47 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 2 4 4 12 8 17 11 18 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 3 5 1 0 -3 0 0 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 50 22 26 7 297 244 261 256 277 247 246 243 240 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 122 122 120 121 123 124 125 126 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 56 55 52 54 55 51 48 43 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 27 27 26 25 24 24 22 22 20 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -10 -6 -7 -11 -15 -21 -40 -49 -60 -41 -43 200 MB DIV 43 61 54 11 -4 44 24 24 -18 16 0 -4 0 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -2 -2 0 8 5 4 4 0 -2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 2038 1871 1704 1543 1381 1066 755 476 297 215 243 269 395 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.9 24.6 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.7 137.3 138.8 140.3 141.8 144.7 147.6 150.3 152.8 155.3 157.8 160.0 162.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -10. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -7. -15. -22. -30. -36. -43. -43. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##