* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 25 31 38 42 45 43 41 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 22 25 31 38 42 45 43 41 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 19 22 26 30 33 34 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 9 7 11 13 14 15 15 13 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 0 -3 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 29 29 43 59 57 84 89 93 79 88 76 110 139 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 159 155 149 141 135 126 122 120 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 69 69 63 59 49 44 39 37 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 6 11 5 -12 -13 -12 -14 -16 -21 -32 -36 200 MB DIV 19 29 21 5 -10 -29 -20 -21 -13 -23 0 -18 -25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 650 670 706 759 819 830 840 890 934 967 1031 1088 1160 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.7 109.6 110.6 111.5 113.3 114.9 116.5 117.9 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 30 26 27 40 27 11 8 4 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 25. 23. 21. 19. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##