* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 84 74 66 60 53 48 46 43 46 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 84 74 66 60 53 48 46 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 88 85 82 73 65 58 53 50 49 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 2 4 4 14 13 9 14 11 9 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 2 1 -3 -1 -5 0 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 348 335 285 325 279 247 268 228 260 254 239 244 257 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 123 122 120 122 123 125 126 128 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 58 58 55 54 55 55 52 49 45 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 28 27 28 27 26 25 25 24 22 23 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -5 -5 -4 -11 -6 -14 -21 -43 -52 -42 -44 -31 200 MB DIV 58 66 29 10 10 49 16 19 -17 18 10 -11 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -2 3 7 6 9 6 0 1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1898 1738 1577 1414 1252 947 649 388 254 218 177 249 398 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.7 22.0 23.0 23.7 24.2 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.5 140.0 141.5 143.0 145.8 148.6 151.3 153.9 156.4 158.7 160.7 162.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 2 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -15. -20. -25. -30. -32. -35. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -7. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -16. -24. -30. -37. -42. -44. -47. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##