* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 35 43 46 48 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 28 35 43 46 48 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 28 32 37 39 40 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 9 12 13 14 15 18 16 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 21 36 50 54 67 91 81 82 73 81 95 137 163 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 157 152 145 138 131 125 121 118 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 67 62 53 47 41 37 33 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 12 2 -2 -3 -15 -7 -11 -6 -13 -20 -21 200 MB DIV 17 23 19 4 -7 -2 -11 -15 -18 -18 -11 -26 -20 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 632 668 713 768 768 761 792 833 853 891 947 986 1049 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.7 110.5 111.4 112.2 113.7 115.2 116.5 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.3 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 26 29 35 34 15 9 5 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 23. 26. 28. 27. 25. 23. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##