* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 62 56 52 46 42 39 37 35 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 70 67 62 56 52 46 42 40 37 35 31 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 67 65 63 59 56 56 58 60 63 64 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 27 35 35 30 28 26 21 22 14 20 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -6 -3 4 0 -4 -5 -1 0 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 313 306 314 322 312 275 243 221 207 184 152 158 N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.5 28.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 139 140 145 152 151 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 40 41 46 49 50 50 53 52 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 4 0 -2 -6 -12 -8 -17 -22 -36 -46 N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -35 -24 -13 -2 4 -16 -10 -3 2 -3 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 4 0 0 -3 -2 -4 3 1 7 1 N/A LAND (KM) 186 34 19 141 157 219 368 561 783 1082 1461 1798 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.0 22.9 24.2 25.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.1 154.6 156.1 157.5 158.8 161.2 163.2 165.2 167.4 170.3 173.9 177.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 13 16 17 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 8 2 18 34 24 24 15 10 22 30 12 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. -35. -39. -41. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##