* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 101 98 93 81 72 64 55 49 45 42 43 V (KT) LAND 100 102 101 98 93 81 72 64 55 49 45 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 100 100 98 93 88 77 68 61 55 52 51 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 16 10 11 14 16 7 10 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 1 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 338 299 310 301 256 255 259 264 243 266 204 273 283 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 121 120 120 122 123 124 127 129 131 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 55 55 55 58 54 50 46 42 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 28 29 27 27 26 25 25 23 23 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 -4 -6 -5 -11 -21 -37 -55 -56 -48 -48 -27 200 MB DIV 60 40 21 22 53 22 7 -9 10 5 16 -16 23 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 0 3 9 7 7 2 1 1 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1746 1584 1423 1261 1099 786 501 314 216 206 249 368 470 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.5 24.4 24.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 138.4 139.9 141.4 142.9 144.4 147.3 150.1 152.6 155.1 157.5 160.1 162.1 163.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -33. -38. -42. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -7. -19. -28. -36. -45. -51. -55. -58. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 32 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##