* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 46 48 46 43 41 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 46 48 46 43 41 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 46 45 42 40 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 17 19 18 20 20 20 14 14 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -6 -6 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 31 32 32 49 68 71 70 54 63 88 116 152 165 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 157 155 149 141 136 130 126 120 117 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 66 64 61 52 47 40 39 35 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 -1 -10 -8 -12 -17 -15 -14 -12 -15 -19 -2 200 MB DIV 22 16 -5 -15 -3 -1 -12 -22 -33 -15 -15 -5 -11 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 568 603 643 639 607 564 560 583 573 568 572 577 607 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.2 111.8 112.9 113.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.6 117.0 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 25 26 24 15 10 6 4 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 22. 23. 21. 18. 16. 13. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##