* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 47 44 40 40 41 42 43 45 44 45 V (KT) LAND 60 50 51 47 44 41 40 41 42 43 45 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 60 50 53 50 48 45 44 46 50 57 64 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 30 33 28 25 21 13 8 7 1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -8 -4 4 3 -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 310 324 320 298 259 240 205 222 253 166 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 134 136 138 139 140 141 143 148 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 42 44 45 51 50 50 47 50 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -4 -8 -10 -13 -12 -7 3 -2 -18 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -39 -40 -9 -6 -27 -6 -23 -15 -2 -12 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 0 1 -1 -4 -5 0 -5 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 78 -4 124 207 243 310 465 675 939 1235 1547 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.4 155.8 157.1 158.5 159.8 162.0 163.9 166.2 168.9 171.8 174.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 12 14 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 3 12 32 32 21 24 12 15 30 27 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -16. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##