* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 100 94 86 73 63 55 49 49 44 43 44 V (KT) LAND 105 104 100 94 86 73 63 55 49 49 44 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 98 91 85 72 63 56 51 47 45 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 6 12 9 11 13 13 8 12 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 -2 4 0 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 346 270 268 266 257 238 210 227 239 220 218 246 240 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 121 119 119 121 122 122 124 126 129 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 53 54 57 57 55 52 50 43 41 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 23 25 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -6 -9 -4 -10 -16 -34 -50 -38 -37 -21 0 200 MB DIV 32 50 41 55 24 10 20 9 22 20 -11 -10 13 700-850 TADV -4 -2 5 9 6 7 13 13 10 4 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1604 1447 1291 1134 978 682 443 322 279 252 249 378 525 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 139.7 141.2 142.6 144.1 145.5 148.3 151.0 153.4 155.5 157.8 160.1 162.0 163.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -23. -31. -38. -43. -47. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -19. -32. -42. -50. -56. -56. -61. -62. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##