* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 79 73 68 61 56 52 47 46 42 40 41 V (KT) LAND 90 85 79 73 68 61 56 52 47 46 42 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 79 74 70 62 56 53 50 48 45 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 14 14 9 12 11 15 14 13 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 0 0 -1 -3 2 2 4 1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 260 261 255 259 260 229 236 200 230 195 220 214 178 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 118 119 121 122 123 125 126 129 132 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 52 54 57 57 55 50 47 43 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 23 24 24 23 23 22 21 22 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -10 -6 -7 -18 -28 -38 -58 -45 -42 -34 -18 200 MB DIV 42 43 56 28 16 8 -1 24 10 30 0 -11 1 700-850 TADV -1 5 6 2 4 8 9 6 4 4 2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1440 1288 1137 980 827 558 382 300 324 357 463 625 838 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.4 26.2 26.9 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.2 142.6 144.0 145.5 146.9 149.6 152.1 154.6 156.8 158.9 160.9 163.0 165.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -29. -34. -38. -43. -44. -48. -50. -49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##