* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 39 37 37 36 37 38 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 39 37 37 36 37 38 35 36 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 40 39 40 43 49 55 61 66 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 32 27 23 28 16 10 12 6 7 13 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -5 2 2 1 -6 -5 -7 -3 -3 -3 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 328 322 300 278 254 242 193 222 217 271 328 322 N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 139 139 141 139 141 144 146 149 151 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 43 48 50 50 50 49 53 51 52 49 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -12 -13 -10 -8 -9 -23 -30 -47 -56 -74 N/A 200 MB DIV -25 0 -12 15 -11 -23 -10 -25 0 3 2 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 -6 4 -2 0 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 133 181 211 230 307 498 722 937 1143 1300 1468 1724 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.3 158.6 159.8 161.1 162.3 164.5 166.8 168.9 170.9 172.4 174.0 176.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 10 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 34 33 26 22 23 11 15 24 26 30 13 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -10. -9. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##