* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 30 30 31 30 32 31 32 30 31 33 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 30 30 31 30 32 31 32 30 31 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 27 25 25 27 30 34 39 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 26 23 24 24 10 13 3 8 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 3 1 -2 -4 -1 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 299 284 256 244 217 187 174 162 175 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 139 140 141 142 145 149 152 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 47 51 50 51 52 54 54 56 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -17 -15 -10 -9 -6 -12 -15 -31 -39 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -29 -1 0 -6 3 2 -14 14 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -4 -7 1 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 181 215 251 313 389 602 880 1154 1431 1717 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.9 160.1 161.3 162.3 163.2 165.5 168.3 171.0 173.7 176.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 25 21 23 17 13 27 26 20 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 861 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##