* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 77 74 67 62 59 55 50 47 42 39 V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 77 74 67 62 59 55 50 47 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 78 74 70 63 59 55 54 53 55 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 13 9 15 17 18 19 12 6 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 -1 0 0 0 3 -2 -3 -5 -9 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 238 246 243 198 235 242 237 222 228 163 135 108 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 120 121 121 123 125 127 129 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 54 56 50 46 43 40 36 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 23 22 21 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -14 -16 -15 -31 -44 -48 -44 -34 -30 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 33 34 23 9 28 -5 17 33 4 -10 3 -17 -3 700-850 TADV 8 5 10 8 8 8 7 2 0 0 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1137 981 827 694 571 391 288 289 333 474 671 873 1061 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.1 25.2 26.1 26.8 27.4 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.5 146.9 148.2 149.5 152.0 154.5 156.9 159.2 161.5 163.9 166.1 168.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 9 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -23. -26. -30. -35. -38. -43. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##