* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/09/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 23 23 25 25 28 31 32 31 33 36 V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 23 23 25 25 28 31 32 31 33 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 19 18 18 19 21 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 28 25 13 8 10 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 0 -4 -7 -7 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 287 265 258 240 208 202 205 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 140 140 141 143 148 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 44 48 47 47 51 50 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -11 -8 -12 -4 -18 -31 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -37 -19 10 6 -8 -19 -4 -14 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 235 310 404 504 752 1002 1276 1587 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.5 22.4 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.2 161.3 162.4 163.5 164.5 167.0 169.5 172.2 175.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 24 22 24 24 12 19 29 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -2. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##