* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/09/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 73 71 63 59 58 56 55 50 44 37 V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 73 71 63 59 58 56 55 50 44 37 V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 78 74 70 63 58 55 55 57 61 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 8 9 12 18 13 9 8 10 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -2 0 3 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -8 0 0 SHEAR DIR 214 237 238 221 214 231 232 241 237 240 104 92 110 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 120 120 121 123 124 126 128 132 135 136 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 57 58 53 47 44 38 37 30 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 24 23 24 23 22 23 22 21 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -8 -17 -15 -10 -38 -42 -29 -16 4 10 -1 -82 200 MB DIV 39 39 8 13 13 30 0 1 -2 -11 -7 -23 -6 700-850 TADV 9 13 10 8 9 7 1 0 -1 -2 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 986 837 694 572 462 331 295 297 351 535 799 1025 1230 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.3 23.6 24.6 25.3 26.1 27.2 27.7 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.4 146.8 148.2 149.5 150.7 153.2 155.7 158.0 160.3 162.7 165.3 167.8 170.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 7 6 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 3. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -14. -22. -26. -27. -29. -30. -35. -41. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##