* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/09/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 73 67 60 56 54 53 48 41 36 33 V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 73 67 60 56 54 53 48 41 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 79 75 70 63 57 54 53 53 55 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 12 18 17 18 16 17 17 11 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 2 0 4 0 1 -3 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 226 226 217 220 223 213 229 223 233 214 200 103 117 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 120 121 122 122 123 124 125 129 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 57 57 58 58 53 47 41 37 34 32 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 22 18 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -13 -18 -11 -20 -27 -30 -17 1 14 -37 -61 -70 200 MB DIV 49 36 12 19 5 41 3 33 21 14 4 1 -8 700-850 TADV 21 15 13 12 11 8 5 2 2 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 838 706 581 485 414 328 334 347 384 446 549 706 879 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.4 22.0 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.6 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 146.8 148.1 149.4 150.6 151.8 154.0 155.9 157.4 158.6 160.0 161.6 163.3 164.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 1 3 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -6. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -29. -31. -32. -37. -44. -49. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##