* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/09/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 78 73 69 62 59 54 55 50 44 35 28 V (KT) LAND 85 82 78 73 69 62 59 54 55 50 44 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 79 75 71 64 59 56 55 56 56 55 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 17 16 19 17 19 12 9 12 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 0 0 2 0 0 -4 -2 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 223 221 211 222 212 229 224 228 204 173 94 98 116 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 120 121 121 120 122 123 125 128 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 59 54 47 44 38 37 33 37 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 23 21 21 20 21 19 21 18 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -24 -15 -23 -31 -43 -32 -27 0 -1 -9 -36 -60 200 MB DIV 29 24 22 15 30 6 -4 4 0 -14 -14 -7 3 700-850 TADV 13 10 12 8 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 709 593 490 432 397 401 421 448 511 619 764 932 1126 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.2 22.8 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.1 149.4 150.6 151.7 152.8 154.7 156.4 157.8 159.1 160.6 162.4 164.2 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 1 7 5 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -18. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -16. -23. -26. -31. -30. -35. -41. -50. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##