* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 69 66 59 57 54 55 44 34 23 17 V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 69 66 59 57 54 55 44 34 23 17 V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 70 66 60 57 56 58 59 58 53 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 18 17 24 22 19 7 12 21 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 0 5 -2 -4 -2 -7 -4 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 222 219 227 221 213 249 215 238 160 80 71 96 100 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 120 120 121 122 124 126 129 128 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 52 49 43 41 39 34 37 41 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 21 21 19 20 18 19 16 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -31 -38 -41 -51 -29 -20 -18 -34 -44 -59 -95 200 MB DIV 36 28 11 21 28 -9 13 -12 15 -20 -9 -17 6 700-850 TADV 8 12 10 10 6 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 604 534 484 457 441 483 546 622 723 854 1004 1135 1255 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.1 25.4 26.8 27.8 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.3 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.4 150.5 151.6 152.6 153.6 155.5 157.4 159.2 160.9 162.3 163.6 164.8 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 7 5 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. -4. -8. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -23. -26. -25. -36. -46. -57. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##