* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 64 59 53 53 54 51 41 32 25 19 V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 64 59 53 53 54 51 41 32 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 72 68 64 58 56 57 59 57 52 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 20 24 24 20 9 10 13 7 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 4 1 -6 -2 -3 -7 -2 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 219 233 231 223 230 251 244 251 95 49 43 317 299 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 120 121 121 124 127 130 128 124 121 116 97 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 56 52 49 45 44 37 36 34 45 49 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 20 20 18 18 18 20 18 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -36 -49 -49 -53 -42 -24 -26 -36 -33 -42 -54 -25 200 MB DIV 33 20 15 19 -12 -18 -9 -11 -10 -14 -4 1 -18 700-850 TADV 10 11 9 5 1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 527 477 438 437 471 518 600 748 958 1180 1407 1655 1897 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.4 25.1 26.5 27.6 28.8 30.3 31.8 33.3 35.1 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.9 153.0 154.1 155.1 157.3 159.3 161.1 162.9 164.7 166.5 168.1 169.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 7. 3. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. -27. -26. -29. -39. -48. -55. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##