* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 35 41 47 52 55 58 61 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 35 41 47 52 55 58 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 35 43 52 60 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 23 23 14 11 7 6 8 2 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 86 82 83 82 76 79 87 115 110 181 246 225 286 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 131 130 128 119 113 113 114 117 121 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 136 132 131 129 118 111 110 110 114 118 125 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 76 75 73 68 63 58 55 53 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 85 84 69 51 37 33 40 48 52 58 61 52 45 200 MB DIV 75 75 53 52 41 30 3 -14 -6 -17 -11 -2 -5 700-850 TADV 3 0 -3 -3 -7 -9 -2 -1 3 4 3 5 4 LAND (KM) 420 549 681 812 925 1188 1528 1868 1942 1768 1574 1416 1262 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.1 13.2 14.3 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.8 23.0 24.3 25.6 28.4 31.7 34.9 38.1 41.0 44.0 46.9 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 16 15 14 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 7 3 13 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/10/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)