* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 60 54 51 46 46 43 36 25 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 60 54 51 46 46 43 36 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 64 61 56 53 54 57 58 55 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 24 27 21 18 13 3 11 15 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 8 3 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 229 212 231 257 241 246 228 122 91 78 69 58 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 118 119 121 123 125 127 129 129 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 51 47 44 44 40 36 32 31 34 40 41 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 20 21 18 19 16 16 14 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -47 -47 -52 -46 -35 -32 -22 -18 -31 -44 -75 -108 200 MB DIV 21 16 34 -20 -15 24 -20 -5 -31 -15 -16 2 -10 700-850 TADV 11 8 6 3 2 0 3 -1 4 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 502 476 471 480 504 519 541 578 646 760 920 1058 1181 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.4 26.2 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.8 29.7 30.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 151.9 152.8 153.7 154.4 155.1 156.6 157.9 159.0 160.1 161.6 163.5 165.0 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 7 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 9 9 6 5 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -21. -24. -29. -29. -32. -39. -50. -58. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##