* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 31 37 43 49 52 58 62 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 31 37 43 49 52 58 62 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 39 47 56 65 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 25 22 19 12 12 9 9 5 2 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 81 80 81 85 92 95 101 88 113 189 139 248 277 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 133 130 128 124 116 113 113 114 118 123 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 133 131 128 123 113 110 109 111 115 123 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 76 76 75 73 67 61 55 54 52 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 73 67 50 38 29 37 47 57 57 66 66 71 72 200 MB DIV 56 48 47 35 35 29 0 7 17 -5 -5 -8 7 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -5 -6 -2 -2 0 2 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 525 654 785 885 996 1286 1600 1921 1926 1715 1512 1293 1133 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.7 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.8 24.0 25.3 26.5 29.4 32.4 35.4 38.4 41.4 44.4 47.8 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 8 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 1 8 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 29. 32. 38. 42. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/10/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED