* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 24 25 25 22 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 24 24 26 26 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 18 17 17 18 20 21 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 14 14 14 12 12 17 19 20 15 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -8 -5 -1 -1 2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 214 209 205 181 174 153 145 151 141 160 159 123 58 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.6 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 146 148 152 152 150 145 137 129 119 112 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 52 53 51 54 48 46 43 43 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 0 -5 -20 -40 -41 -70 -93 -118 -123 -127 -111 200 MB DIV -8 -5 0 -1 14 4 -9 -16 -3 -21 -13 -12 -33 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -2 5 -5 7 0 6 0 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 769 883 1000 1147 1298 1606 1930 2235 2512 2730 2889 2974 2980 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.4 21.9 23.3 24.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 167.0 168.2 169.4 170.9 172.4 175.4 178.5 181.4 184.0 186.0 187.4 188.0 187.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 16 15 14 12 10 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 25 31 29 20 10 12 8 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##