* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 37 50 63 71 78 82 85 89 89 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 37 50 63 71 78 82 85 89 89 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 58 69 78 86 91 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 13 11 18 15 16 13 10 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 68 78 76 80 59 55 48 53 70 64 83 61 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 168 169 167 162 158 160 159 152 146 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 75 74 75 74 73 72 71 69 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 40 33 27 26 14 26 29 36 43 44 33 200 MB DIV 29 38 38 49 62 66 41 49 30 45 18 19 16 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 1 -1 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 368 322 306 302 326 390 444 542 686 817 889 981 1076 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.2 97.4 98.7 99.9 102.5 105.0 107.5 110.0 112.4 114.8 116.9 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 34 49 59 65 70 44 24 33 33 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 30. 43. 51. 58. 62. 65. 69. 69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##