* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 40 47 52 55 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 40 47 52 55 60 63 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 34 42 50 59 66 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 23 20 17 12 7 6 5 3 2 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 72 73 74 86 93 96 98 83 179 289 303 314 302 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 128 127 119 113 112 115 117 121 125 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 129 128 118 111 108 110 112 116 121 125 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 72 68 62 57 53 51 49 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 61 49 36 32 31 46 60 57 59 53 37 20 2 200 MB DIV 67 61 48 37 32 15 4 -3 3 -4 -17 -7 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -4 -2 1 0 3 4 3 6 6 8 LAND (KM) 683 804 904 1025 1154 1472 1814 2050 1905 1754 1633 1507 1276 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.6 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 23.0 24.2 25.4 26.8 28.1 31.2 34.4 37.5 40.5 43.4 46.3 49.6 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 16 16 16 15 15 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 4 4 12 2 0 0 0 2 8 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 20. 27. 32. 35. 40. 43. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/11/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED