* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 64 58 58 53 43 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 64 58 58 53 43 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 71 68 65 59 57 56 54 49 41 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 22 23 19 12 9 25 16 14 11 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 1 -4 -1 0 -4 -7 -8 0 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 223 223 235 240 228 230 196 43 41 46 33 23 78 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 118 119 119 122 123 124 124 124 119 114 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 43 44 43 40 37 33 29 32 37 41 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 21 21 20 19 20 19 17 14 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -58 -47 -41 -37 -31 -8 -13 -26 -44 -68 -99 -144 200 MB DIV 38 8 -16 -6 11 -16 7 -27 7 -31 0 -21 3 700-850 TADV 7 5 5 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 564 588 623 650 673 706 712 748 811 922 1078 1244 1425 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.5 30.5 31.9 33.4 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 153.2 153.8 154.3 154.8 155.2 156.2 157.5 158.5 159.2 159.7 159.9 159.4 158.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -17. -22. -32. -47. -60. -71. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##