* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 49 60 67 71 72 72 71 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 36 49 60 67 71 72 72 71 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 28 35 45 54 62 68 71 71 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 10 11 14 16 14 11 15 11 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 60 65 70 52 46 35 33 28 16 34 352 342 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.0 26.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 168 168 165 160 161 159 154 145 132 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 9 9 8 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 73 74 76 72 73 69 68 66 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 39 31 31 14 17 20 26 18 8 5 8 200 MB DIV 36 35 37 49 45 35 20 34 38 13 -4 12 -10 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 1 -1 1 1 0 0 -2 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 352 340 336 356 376 406 457 536 681 706 782 858 969 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.1 99.2 100.4 101.5 103.9 106.2 108.5 110.8 113.2 115.5 117.8 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 36 51 58 62 77 63 26 25 32 10 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 333 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 29. 40. 47. 51. 52. 52. 51. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##