* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 35 40 47 51 54 57 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 35 40 47 51 54 57 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 35 43 50 57 63 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 21 18 13 13 8 7 6 3 9 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -4 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 77 82 92 93 102 99 145 227 200 239 295 267 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 124 119 113 112 114 117 120 124 129 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 125 119 112 109 110 112 115 119 125 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 71 69 64 60 54 55 49 46 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 37 34 42 46 64 66 50 47 28 10 -10 -26 200 MB DIV 65 44 26 27 25 -1 1 0 -2 5 -27 0 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -7 -4 -1 -1 1 4 4 5 11 7 18 LAND (KM) 781 922 1074 1244 1418 1793 2042 1881 1746 1643 1537 1306 1018 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.3 25.9 27.4 29.1 30.7 34.2 37.5 40.6 43.4 46.3 49.4 52.8 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 14 14 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 6 4 3 0 0 0 2 8 5 10 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 41. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/11/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED