* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 60 58 58 58 51 40 30 24 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 60 58 58 58 51 40 30 24 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 63 61 59 56 56 55 53 46 37 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 15 18 17 17 14 3 12 18 9 4 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -2 0 3 -8 -4 -6 4 2 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 228 227 232 226 223 221 196 36 48 59 311 352 317 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 125 122 119 117 111 98 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 39 36 35 30 35 41 42 40 42 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 23 21 22 22 21 20 18 18 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -44 -35 -36 -26 -12 4 -3 -2 -20 -102 -122 -117 200 MB DIV 5 3 -20 2 21 -17 -18 -13 -20 -15 -42 -21 -12 700-850 TADV 8 7 3 3 0 1 1 2 -1 6 -3 4 4 LAND (KM) 566 593 619 632 654 691 735 836 944 1055 1157 1372 1685 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.3 28.1 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.7 32.6 34.4 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 153.9 154.4 154.9 155.5 156.0 157.1 157.9 158.6 159.3 159.3 158.7 157.1 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -19. -30. -40. -46. -55. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##