* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 39 44 47 49 52 56 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 39 44 47 49 52 56 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 42 48 53 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 20 18 18 10 8 8 3 4 7 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -2 4 4 5 9 4 SHEAR DIR 72 75 80 84 85 96 94 183 255 240 314 49 356 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 122 117 111 112 116 120 122 127 134 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 127 122 116 108 108 111 113 115 120 126 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 69 66 61 58 57 54 50 44 42 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 41 34 35 39 46 64 52 47 26 0 -40 -55 -78 200 MB DIV 54 36 25 26 6 -6 -7 -17 -15 -23 -17 0 18 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -5 -1 0 5 7 12 12 17 21 24 25 LAND (KM) 980 1108 1245 1410 1578 1912 2027 1919 1826 1779 1674 1477 1246 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 26.2 27.6 29.0 30.6 32.2 35.3 38.4 41.2 43.9 46.4 49.2 52.0 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 6 2 0 0 0 2 5 7 9 11 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 32. 36. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/11/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)