* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 58 57 61 55 48 36 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 58 57 61 55 48 36 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 60 59 58 58 59 58 53 45 38 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 17 14 6 10 19 14 4 8 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 1 1 -6 -5 -6 4 1 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 228 225 224 218 187 25 29 61 66 294 282 296 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.3 24.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 124 125 127 129 129 127 127 124 116 107 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 43 44 39 36 37 33 35 38 42 43 47 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 21 22 23 20 19 18 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -29 -41 -29 -14 -9 -16 -2 -21 -47 -61 -84 -116 200 MB DIV 2 -8 5 -10 -12 3 -24 24 -29 0 -39 3 -17 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 2 4 0 0 2 7 8 -3 8 0 LAND (KM) 603 626 653 674 691 770 879 944 1011 1134 1340 1551 1801 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.0 29.0 30.1 30.7 31.3 32.4 34.2 35.8 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 154.6 155.2 155.7 156.3 156.8 157.8 158.7 159.0 159.1 158.7 157.9 155.7 152.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 5 3 5 7 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 7 1 2 4 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -4. -10. -17. -29. -40. -47. -51. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##