* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 33 45 55 64 69 71 74 75 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 33 45 55 64 69 71 74 75 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 34 43 53 62 69 74 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 16 16 17 16 14 15 12 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -7 -5 -4 -2 -4 0 -1 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 72 75 71 68 64 57 57 60 38 54 52 23 336 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 166 164 160 161 159 155 151 146 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 74 75 73 73 70 67 67 65 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 23 11 6 5 14 28 42 48 38 28 15 200 MB DIV 38 40 45 39 44 38 36 48 19 10 19 -5 -6 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 1 -1 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 431 466 501 538 557 664 784 972 1042 1154 1266 1382 1538 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.3 102.5 103.8 105.1 107.6 110.1 112.6 115.0 117.5 119.9 122.4 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 53 61 57 65 56 34 25 28 14 24 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 25. 35. 44. 49. 51. 54. 55. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##