* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 42 47 54 57 62 65 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 42 47 54 57 62 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 33 39 46 53 60 68 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 16 13 7 5 5 2 7 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 4 1 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 73 76 82 85 90 90 146 252 310 293 344 318 8 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 124 120 115 111 114 118 122 126 134 140 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 124 119 113 108 110 114 117 122 128 133 136 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 65 64 60 56 56 53 48 43 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 30 34 40 59 48 46 27 0 -31 -49 -75 200 MB DIV 45 31 34 7 -13 -2 -6 -13 7 -13 5 -5 5 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -2 -1 0 6 6 9 9 16 17 21 17 LAND (KM) 1143 1275 1414 1575 1739 2072 1920 1786 1692 1607 1416 1126 932 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.2 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 29.2 30.6 32.2 33.7 36.8 39.9 42.9 45.9 49.1 52.4 55.5 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 7 9 6 10 14 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 27. 34. 37. 42. 45. 47. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/11/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED