* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 61 63 63 61 50 38 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 61 63 63 61 50 38 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 63 63 64 63 59 51 43 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 20 16 15 2 14 19 15 15 20 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -4 -3 -4 8 3 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 235 229 224 219 231 156 26 8 352 310 330 337 331 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.8 23.9 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 128 129 130 129 126 120 116 111 103 85 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 46 41 37 37 35 32 40 45 49 49 50 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 20 21 20 21 18 16 13 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -41 -30 -22 -25 -25 -15 -3 -28 -63 -77 -105 -123 200 MB DIV -5 8 -5 -28 -16 -9 0 -16 -31 7 -33 -1 10 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 4 2 0 2 4 12 2 9 8 17 LAND (KM) 671 698 719 749 785 870 967 1089 1213 1330 1446 1669 2004 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.1 30.0 30.9 32.0 33.1 34.1 35.0 36.5 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 155.5 156.1 156.6 157.1 157.6 158.5 159.0 158.9 158.6 157.8 156.6 154.0 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 10 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 1 1 2 4 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -3. -6. -10. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -4. -15. -27. -38. -47. -54. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##