* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 43 50 60 65 70 76 76 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 43 50 60 65 70 76 76 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 29 35 42 53 64 77 88 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 18 12 7 5 2 1 8 4 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 1 3 0 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 62 62 79 90 95 173 347 27 331 340 329 308 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 119 115 113 112 115 119 124 130 137 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 125 118 112 110 109 110 115 121 127 135 140 140 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 10 10 12 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 64 63 59 57 55 52 48 46 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 44 49 64 59 56 45 32 5 -5 -17 -38 200 MB DIV 36 15 -7 -22 -15 -18 -18 -20 -16 -13 8 6 30 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -6 -4 -1 3 5 5 7 12 12 16 18 LAND (KM) 1479 1628 1781 1926 1986 1818 1690 1551 1460 1300 1084 764 446 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.5 34.0 35.4 36.8 39.6 42.3 45.1 48.1 51.4 54.8 58.5 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 14 14 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 11 8 14 24 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 389 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 40. 45. 50. 56. 56. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED