* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 55 57 54 50 40 32 26 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 55 57 54 50 40 32 26 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 58 58 60 58 52 43 36 29 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 13 4 10 19 20 12 21 15 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -4 -6 -5 -1 8 3 3 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 233 229 220 237 231 19 3 4 323 312 337 334 325 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 127 129 129 129 127 123 119 114 108 100 91 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 39 35 35 33 33 33 42 44 47 48 47 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 21 22 20 20 18 16 16 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -31 -19 -23 -18 -31 -3 -19 -35 -59 -82 -106 -121 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -26 -24 3 -10 16 -30 -4 -21 -14 -24 -17 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 1 2 2 5 10 4 3 5 7 6 LAND (KM) 664 693 726 766 810 913 1036 1163 1275 1408 1549 1722 1920 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.4 31.5 32.6 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.6 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 156.0 156.5 157.0 157.5 158.0 158.6 158.5 157.9 157.0 155.8 154.5 152.7 150.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 3 5 6 3 21 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -3. -6. -10. -20. -28. -34. -43. -51. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##