* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 48 61 74 85 91 90 92 88 87 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 41 48 61 74 85 91 90 92 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 50 62 73 81 83 81 79 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 13 11 13 12 9 12 11 6 11 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 54 55 43 34 48 64 46 75 74 41 50 13 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 166 164 162 163 160 154 147 137 134 131 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 75 72 74 71 69 66 63 58 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 16 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 25 17 5 9 18 29 35 52 54 43 43 21 16 200 MB DIV 41 44 28 41 49 24 40 39 29 14 21 -11 1 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 399 423 429 459 502 626 744 843 998 1144 1335 1488 1661 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 103.2 104.5 105.8 107.1 109.7 112.1 114.8 117.6 120.3 123.1 125.8 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 60 67 75 68 47 29 40 28 8 14 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 15. 24. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 15. 19. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 36. 49. 60. 66. 65. 67. 63. 62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##