* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 08/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 36 41 50 58 66 71 76 76 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 36 41 50 58 66 71 76 76 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 41 50 62 76 88 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 11 8 6 4 2 2 7 5 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 67 75 86 103 114 146 213 111 229 6 309 324 295 SST (C) 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 119 114 113 114 114 118 122 127 135 141 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 118 112 111 111 111 115 118 124 134 140 142 141 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 62 61 56 55 52 48 47 46 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 49 63 58 51 49 38 25 4 -2 -24 -54 200 MB DIV 1 -6 -22 -7 -4 -15 -9 -6 -18 -3 -3 12 7 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -6 -2 1 1 2 3 7 5 12 9 17 LAND (KM) 1683 1830 1953 1923 1834 1675 1530 1422 1333 1090 865 480 196 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.5 35.9 37.3 38.7 41.6 44.4 47.4 50.5 53.8 57.5 61.2 64.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 14 14 15 14 14 15 15 17 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 9 7 15 22 33 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 368 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 21. 30. 38. 46. 51. 56. 56. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 08/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 08/12/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED