* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 56 56 53 46 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 56 56 53 46 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 59 60 61 59 51 43 36 30 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 6 1 14 17 16 19 23 23 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -4 -3 -3 7 4 1 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 224 224 233 220 239 13 357 340 312 318 318 318 353 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.6 24.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 129 130 129 126 122 118 114 108 103 93 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 36 36 33 33 30 36 42 41 41 42 41 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 22 20 20 18 17 16 14 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -21 -20 -14 -27 -23 -10 -35 -46 -70 -103 -123 -117 200 MB DIV -1 -20 -22 -6 -6 -9 -16 -27 -16 -34 -2 -11 -45 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 0 0 2 1 7 -1 10 5 6 2 LAND (KM) 689 714 744 790 839 958 1082 1195 1323 1455 1575 1727 1914 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.8 31.9 32.8 33.7 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 156.6 157.1 157.5 157.9 158.3 158.6 158.3 157.2 155.8 154.5 153.4 151.8 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 4 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -7. -14. -22. -30. -38. -47. -55. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##